This simulation study of the French general population predicted that perfect adherence to the French government's alcohol consumption guidelines (no more than 10 standard alcoholic drinks per week and two per day) would prevent almost 16,000 cancer cases per year, which would have represented 4.5% of new cancer cases in 2015.
The number of averted cancer cases over the study period were highest for oral cavity, oropharynx and hypopharynx cancer (respectively 118462 (95% CI [113803,123022]) and 11167 [10149,12229] for men and women); liver and intrahepatic bile ducts cancer (123447 [112581,133404]) and 2825 [2208,4095]; colorectal cancer (89859 [84651,95355]) and 12847 [11545,14245]); and female breast cancer (61649 [56330,67452]).
This simulation study was an adaption of the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model. The dose-response relationship between alcohol consumption and alcohol-attributable cancer risks was defined by cancer site-specific risk functions, each modeled as a continuous risk. These estimates were used to compute the potential impact fraction (PIF) associated with alcohol consumption by cancer site.