New Australian study estimates alcohol caused more than 7,800 cancers in 2024

24.04.2026 - A new Australian study has estimated that alcohol consumption is responsible for a larger share of cancer cases than previously thought, strengthening the case for cancer prevention messages that include even low and moderate drinking. The study, published in the British Journal of Cancer, analysed data from 225,805 participants in the New South Wales 45 and Up Study, with cancer outcomes followed through record linkage to the NSW Cancer Registry up to the end of 2019.

The researchers, led by Dr Peter Sarich from the University of Sydney, found that alcohol-related cancer risk increased by 19 percent for every additional 10 drinks consumed per week. The University of Sydney news article summarising the study reported that this estimate is higher than previous Australian estimates, which had placed alcohol’s contribution to cancer at between 2.8 percent and 4.1 percent of cases.

The study focused on cancers already recognised as causally linked to alcohol use, including cancers of the mouth, pharynx, larynx, oesophagus, colorectum, liver, and female breast. For every 10 drinks per week, the estimated risk rose by 27 percent for upper aerodigestive tract cancers, 16 percent for colorectal cancer, 46 percent for liver cancer, and 18 percent for breast cancer. Across all alcohol-related cancers combined, the increase was 19 percent.

In population terms, the researchers estimated that 7,804 cancer cases diagnosed in Australia in 2024 were attributable to alcohol use, equal to 4.6 percent of all cancers. Current drinking accounted for 7,128 cases, while former drinking accounted for a further 677 cases. The largest alcohol-attributable shares were found for liver cancer, where 47.2 percent of cases were estimated to be linked to alcohol, and upper aerodigestive tract cancers, where the share was 26.4 percent. For breast cancer, alcohol was estimated to account for 8.8 percent of cases.

The findings also show why alcohol guidelines should not be interpreted as a cancer-free threshold. Australia’s current National Health and Medical Research Council guideline recommends no more than 10 standard drinks per week and no more than four on any one day. The researchers estimated that if everyone drinking above 10 drinks per week reduced their consumption to exactly 10 drinks per week, 3,733 cancer cases could have been prevented in 2024. But this also means that nearly half of the cancer cases attributable to current alcohol consumption were linked to drinking within the guideline level.

Another important result is that the total amount of alcohol consumed appeared to matter more than how drinking was spread across the week. The researchers did not find statistically significant differences in cancer risk based on drinking pattern, meaning whether people drank on one to three days per week or four to seven days per week. They did note, however, that the study may still have had limited power to detect some differences in drinking patterns.

The study’s strengths include its large prospective cohort, long follow-up period, and linkage with cancer registry data. Its limitations include reliance on self-reported alcohol consumption, possible underreporting, the fact that the cohort may not perfectly represent the Australian population, and the use of international risk estimates for former drinking. Still, the authors conclude that the proportion of cancers attributable to alcohol in Australia is substantial and somewhat higher than earlier estimates.

Dr Sarich told the University of Sydney that even low levels of consumption increase cancer risk over time, and that fewer drinks mean a lower likelihood of being diagnosed with an alcohol-related cancer. He also noted that awareness remains a challenge, with only around half of the population aware that alcohol causes cancer, and far fewer aware of its link to common cancers such as breast cancer.

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Study: British Journal of Cancer