Two fewer drinks a week could prevent more than 11,500 cancer diagnoses in the Netherlands by 2050

15.01.2026 - A small drop in alcohol use could lead to a surprisingly large public health gain in the Netherlands, according to new calculations by the Netherlands Comprehensive Cancer Organisation (IKNL). IKNL estimates that if people drink just two fewer glasses of alcohol per week from 2032 onward, it could prevent an average of 427 cancer diagnoses each year. Over the full period up to 2050, that adds up to 11,529 fewer cancer diagnoses.

The estimate is based on strong scientific evidence linking alcohol use to at least seven types of cancer, including cancers of the mouth, throat, larynx, liver, oesophagus, colon and rectum, and breast cancer. IKNL notes that the overall pattern is clear: the more alcohol people drink, the higher the cancer risk, and there is no “safe” lower limit. Trimbos Institute has previously reported that fewer than half of adults in the Netherlands know about the alcohol and cancer link, which researchers say underlines the need for better awareness.

To model what might realistically happen in society, IKNL did not assume that everyone suddenly changes their drinking habits overnight. Instead, the scenario accounts for the time needed for prevention policies and public awareness to take effect, with alcohol consumption gradually declining until the “two glasses less per week” reduction is fully reached in 2032. The impact is then calculated through to 2050, with the biggest reductions expected in bowel cancer among men and breast cancer among women.

IKNL also tested an alternative scenario focusing on heavier drinkers, those who currently consume more than four glasses per week. If that group reduced drinking so that by 2032 they drink no more than four glasses per week, the model estimates 16,767 cancer diagnoses could be prevented by 2050 (about 621 per year). KWF Kankerbestrijding director Dorine Manson said awareness alone is not enough, and argued that stronger alcohol policy is needed, including a legal ban on alcohol advertising that reaches children and young people.

The real impact could be even larger than these figures suggest, IKNL warns, because the calculation only includes the seven cancers where the evidence is strongest, while other cancer links (such as stomach cancer) are also suspected. The model also does not include the way smoking can amplify alcohol-related cancer risk, especially for cancers of the mouth and throat area. In the Netherlands, around 73% of people drink alcohol (2024 data), and among drinkers, men average more than eight glasses per week while women average nearly five.

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Source: IKNL